Historically, CDs return about 4.5% annually over the long term. Over 30 years, that would turn $1,000 into $3,745. The stock market has historically returned about twice that, 9%. That would turn $1,000 into $13,267. If I can maintain my 8 point lead on the market, which is a big assumption of course, I’d have $85,850 for every $1,000 that I invest now! Or, to put it another way, I could put in $50 for every $1,000 you put in and still have the same amount at retirement.

You seem to have a problem with stock growth because you see it as unsustainable. Although that’s true for the market as a whole, individual companies can still grow sustainably. Even so, growth stocks are risky because for each proto-Microsoft there are 10 (or 100) companies that will fail trying to get there.

There are also a lot of value stocks out there. These are stocks that have prices that don’t reflect the underlying business. Value companies are safer investments but don’t promise the same returns, since the price only goes up to the value of the company. However, this just requires a company to maintain its value, which should be sustainable.

Finally, there are dividend stocks. These are companies that have grown as much as they can, so they return any extra money to their shareholders. It’s a bit like a co-op, which is definitely a sustainable model.

Even if all of these assets as a whole lose value, I find it hard to believe that every stock on the market will lose value along with the market. Even in the troubled market of the past year, some stocks have literally doubled in value. If you think that energy constraints are going to hurt the market as a whole, you could make a killing investing in renewable energy companies.

But this is all really beside the point. If you’re not comfortable investing in stocks, don’t! Just don’t laugh too hard at us stock investors while you’re sitting on a 2% return and we’re languishing in the negatives because the tables might turn.

It seems like our economy is run mostly by businesses that are ‘too big to fail,’ oil, and big box stores, but they are all hurting for extra money these days. That’s an extremely bad sign in my viewpoint that making long term investment choices is really just a crap shoot. It may have worked in the past, but I don’t see it working out the same these days. I wish I could know what the world will be like in 2050, but I’m hoping that it still doesn’t revolve around these monopolies.

Continuing to do 8 points better than the market is only good if the market stays afloat. What happens if things crash again and even the smart, well-educated investors are down 30, 40, 50%? That’s where this becomes clear that stocks can be an addicting game. The knowledge of how to make your investment grow is a good tool, but only if the market is in your favor. That’s a risk that I don’t plan on ever taking, and if we use -34% as a baseline, I’m 38 points higher than that by using reliable CDs instead of the stock market. Will I always be 38 points up - of course not. But at least I know that I’m not going into the negative by trying to play a game with old rules.

Comparing my losses to the market as a whole is important because it lets me know how well my personal strategies are working, apart from the movements of the general market. If I can continue to do 8 points better than the market, I’ll have a lot of money when I retire in 40 years even if the market as a whole has middling returns.

If you think that the stock market will never recover then this naturally doesn’t apply, but I’m not that pessimistic. Perhaps you are?